Archive for the ‘China’s 1984 and the West Brave New World’ Category

Russia will probably be conquered if not stopping the global transition to AI-based militaries, but who cares?

April 13, 2021

If you think nuclear missiles will be the most powerful and effective weapons in the future, you are wrong. Highly dispersed swarms of tiny AI insect drones can stealthily and quickly kill all top leaders in Washington or Kremlin, as described here.

AI relies on semiconductors aka chips/CPUs. Taiwan and South Korea (plus Netherland) are the leading producers of chips (and the machines needed to create them). America has now blocked China’s access to 7, 5 and 3 nm chips, but China can still produce 14 nm semiconductors, allegedly 7 nm chips too. Russia on the other hand is a loser in the chip race, and therefore also a loser in AI warfare. Russia is so absent in this race that googling “Russia semiconductors” provides little information, at the time of writing, though the website of Mikron appears to indicate that Russia can make 65 nm semiconductors, but fact check me on that.

The final NSCAI report says on p. 214:

“If a potential adversary bests the United States in semiconductors over the long term or suddenly cuts off U.S. access to cutting-edge chips entirely, it could gain the upper hand in every domain of warfare.”

NSCAI also says that:

“Despite tremendous expertise in microelectronics research, development, and innovation across the country, the United States is constrained by a lack of domestically- located semiconductor fabrication facilities, especially for state-of-the-art semiconductors. If current trends continue, the United States will soon be unable to catch up in fabrication, and could eventually also be outpaced in microelectronics design.” (…)

“Objective: Stay two generations ahead of China in state-of-the-art microelectronics and maintain multiple sources of cutting-edge microelectronics fabrication in the United States.” (p. 214 – 216)

The conflict over Taiwan is now to a large degree motivated by the strategic importance of controlling chip manufacturing on the island, partly because AI drones have already contributed to Azerbaijan winning the war against Armenia in 2020. Aljazeera:

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is ushering in a new age of warfare

“Images of armoured vehicles being destroyed, regardless of attempts at camouflage, flooded Western media outlets as Armenian tanks were swiftly targeted by armed drones.” (…)

“The basic fact remains that the tank is still an extremely useful and flexible tool in the taking and holding of ground alongside troops, which is the basic premise of industrial-level ground warfare. Still, this has not stopped larger militaries from reconsidering how effective their large fleets of tanks, with their operational roots in World War Two, would be in a future war.”

“The US Marines Corp is downsizing its number of heavy tanks and the British army is also considering the same, preferring nimbler, more enabled, net-centric forces that would not only survive but prevail in the conflicts of the future. The preference for sensors, drones and long-range attack weapons is what will end up defining success on the modern battlefield.”

Aljazeera:

Ukraine turns to Turkey as Russia threatens full-scale war

“Ukrainian military experts closely studied the use of the drone in Nagorno-Karabakh. They say the similarities between Azerbaijan’s fight against Armenia in that conflict, and Ukraine’s struggle to wrest back control of its breakaway region from another set of Russian supplied forces bodes well for Kyiv.”

““We know that Russian capacity is not enough in the face of Turkish UAV’s,” said Ozturk. “They would give the upper hand to Ukrainian forces. Russian backed separatists have their edge, but they are not capable of stemming the new UAVs.””

Russia can get semiconductors from China, but there are so many tensions between China and Russia that the latter cannot exclude the possibility that Beijing and Washington band together to conquer western and eastern Russia. They will probably have the AI power to divide Russia in the future, maybe somewhere between 2025 and 2045, when climate changes will force China to move north and global resource scarcity and overpopulation leads to unprecedented chaos generally.

In the long run it’s likely that Russia must choose to be under the American or Chinese AI umbrella. Perhaps it will be least painful for Russia to reluctantly join an alliance governed by America, thereby opening up Russia to gradual foreign AI influence in its internal affairs, as described in the prelude to Life 3.0, a book written by MIT physicist Max Tegmark.

Or Russia can decide to start an intercontinental war that will also destroy Big Tech in America and China. But will Putin do that? I doubt it. He’s an old man today, born in 1952. He’s not like Stalin but more of a pragmatic opportunist. He might be dead in 2030, so it’s in his personal interest to play nice and ignore the fact that Russia can be conquered and divided after his death.

On the other hand, the younger generation of leaders in Russia may have the same mentality as Germany in 1914 and Japan in 1941. Germany felt encircled prior to WW1. Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, despite knowing the risk of defeat in the long run, after the US decided to put an embargo on oil to Japan. Semiconductors are the new oil…

Nevertheless, I think Russians today have become so domesticated and hedonistic that the elites in Moscow will not risk all their personal wealth in a preemptive war. It’s therefore unlikely that Kremlin will try to drag NATO into a war over Ukraine. Such an intervention will give Moscow the reason it needs to escalate until an intercontinental war is a tragic fact. Russia and humanity can rebuild afterward, so if you are opposed to humans becoming cyborgs in a Brave New World it’s a lesser evil if Russia starts a global war to save both Russia and original humanity. But the leaders in Russia today appear to be more influenced by selfish opportunism. They are not ideological and ruthless zealots like Lenin and Stalin. Deciding to start a global war can be compared to undergoing massive surgery without anesthetics. Old men don’t want that when they can just live a life of luxury and not care about what happens to Russia after they are dead.

Silicon Valley (and Beijing) have time on their side. They can either wait until highly dispersed swarms of tiny AI insect drones are powerful enough to conquer Russia militarily, or they can do like Sun Tzu and wait until superior AI via the infrastructure of global media and entertainment (Starlink etc) totally undermine Russian culture and identity from within.

A digression on the erosion of Russian identity: “Most Russians identify as Orthodox but only 6 percent of them attend church weekly and only 17 percent pray daily. Russians are largely unchurched and often don’t conform to the doctrines of the Orthodox Church.”

Since all parties in the conflict over Russia have different reasons for waiting I think no war will happen. Kremlin may just have many troops permanently stationed at the western borders, just as Washington must now always have guards and fences around the US Capitol, until Fusion AI insect drones and IoT sensors (in a cashless society) are powerful enough to neutralize all enemies of the ultra-liberal coastal states in America, both domestically and globally.

I’m so convinced that Kremlin today or the next 1-5 years will not start an intercontinental war to save Russia, original humanity, Christianity and cultural conservatism that this is one of the reasons why the realist in me has decided to reluctantly withdraw from the culture war in the West, as explained here.