Kissinger: China will probably not attack Taiwan the next 10 years

The Hill:

Kissinger: ‘I don’t expect an all-out attack on Taiwan … in a 10-year period’

No reason is given why Kissinger has reached this optimistic conclusion. He might be right however. One of my basic views is that all empires are like mafia families engaged in turf wars. From this viewpoint it’s not instrumentally rational if Xi covets Taiwan in such a degree that he is willing to risk BRI and the welfare of entire China just to conquer Taiwan, unless he clearly has enough resources to secure a victory in a fight over the island. If military resources are lacking, CCP may postpone a war until the early 2030s, and just keep saber-rattling in the meanwhile, to deter secessionism.

There are good reasons why a war may occur as early as 2023 perhaps.

Firstly, Xi will be 78 in 2031, so if he wants to reunite China while he’s still alive a war must start as early as possible.

Secondly, Beijing has already achieved a basic ability to invade Taiwan. The Guardian:

China could mount full-scale invasion by 2025, Taiwan defence minister says

“”China will be ready to mount a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island’s defence minister has said, describing current tensions as the worst in 40 years.”

“Speaking to the China Times on Wednesday, Chiu Kuo-cheng said China was capable now but would be completely prepared to launch an invasion in three years.”

““By 2025 China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration,” he said.”

Thirdly, America is relatively weak today in East Asia but this window is closing. Taiwan will probably be an unbeatable “porcupine” in 2031. If we believe open sources it appears that China is in a relatively good position now. Politico:

U.S. ‘not as advanced’ as China and Russia on hypersonic tech, Space Force general warns

“While the Pentagon has pushed the development of new hypersonic missiles, the Army isn’t slated to field its first missile until 2024. The Navy is aiming to put its own version of the missile on a destroyer in 2025 and on Virginia-class submarines in 2028.”

Fourthly, if the US military is not slowed down by red tape it’s possible that a navy of unmanned small boats and small autonomous subs, in addition to swarms of drones, will in 2031 destroy an invading force of ten thousand Chinese vessels crossing the Taiwan Strait. PLA must develop its own robots to counter this threat. It’s therefore far from certain that CCP has a better chance to invade Taiwan in the 2030s.

Finally, Xi relies more or less on Putin. But the latter will be 79 in 2031. Who knows what will happen to Russia if Putin dies next week or five years from now? Both leaders are healthy today and each control a relatively stable and unified country. But this can change in the chaotic years of the 2020s. Given all these uncertainties it’s of course tempting to attack as early as possible.

The longer we wait the more brutal and loud the war will become after China and America have spent years on building up their militaries in preparation for the showdown of the century.

If it all explodes in 2031 the more likely it will be that (a large chunk of) the fourth industrial revolution will be destroyed in the process, depending on how much have been spent on securing the Starlink Metaverse against EMPs and stuff like that. It’s very entertaining times indeed…

Speaking about doom and gloom take a look at this:

Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief


Attempts to solve Ukrainian crisis by force will trigger serious consequences – Kremlin

“Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov does not exclude the attempted provocations so that to justify Western claims about the allegedly existing threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” (…)

“According to Peskov, “this hysteria is being escalated artificially.” “Those who have brought their armed forces overseas are accusing us of some unusual military activity on our territory. That is, the US. Well, this is not entirely logical and not entirely decent,” the Kremlin spokesman noted.”

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