No summit meeting will change US strategy in Taiwan: stall and install

CCP knows of course that no amount of reassuring talks will change the fact that China and America have fundamentally opposing interests regarding Taiwan.

All the US and Taiwan have to do the next decade is to stall for time, so that they can gradually install enough military hardware on the island to make an invasion almost impossible.

States generally in the globalized 21st century have reduced de facto sovereignty, and we live in an “enlightened” time when many Westerners don’t care much about formalities in any case, as long as a country has de facto independence comparable to the autonomy of other globalized states in the West.

Given its circumstances it’s therefore rational from a Taiwanese perspective to pay lip service to the slogan “one country, two systems” while quietly making the island into a porcupine.

If you have a big angry neighbor it’s best to just pretend to go along with anything he says each time you meet him and then live your own life in freedom the rest of the time when he’s not around.

If China just wants verbal reassurances, why not give it? But everyone knows that CCP wants real control over Taiwan. The island is a “stationary unsinkable aircraft carrier”, a US outpost that will get increasingly dangerous to China when America installs hypersonic missiles and drone swarms on the island, perhaps with no human boots from America on the ground.

The sleeping giant is now awake and will probably speed up its innovative creativity as NASA did after the first Sputnik moment. New weapons of 4IR (fourth industrial revolution) can in the late 2020s or early 2030s turn the porcupine of Taiwan into a potential lethal threat to China, triggering a conflict similar to the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

But everyone knows that CCP has the ball at its feet. In other words, it’s up to China whether to invade or not. America in the meanwhile can just continue to play nice with Beijing, in the hope that diplomatic friendliness and good relations in general will postpone a Taiwan War indefinitely. Strategically it’s good from a US and Taiwan perspective when Global Times for example expresses happiness after summit meetings:

World sees China-US interactions as equal, fair

“”There’s no need at all to analyze Biden’s meaning word by word,” Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday. “It is known that Biden is poor in verbal expression. Since taking office, he has uttered all sorts of strange words and expressions. Another confusing and unclear statement is not surprising,” he said, noting that it’s also a way of “performing tai chi” with the US media.” (…)

“In spite of domestic political pressure, the virtual meeting is widely seen as a good starting point to reset the China-US relationship amid a downward spiral. Though some US media outlets claimed there were no major breakthroughs nor consensus from the meeting, experts said that breaking the deadlock in the bilateral relationship is a fruitful result, with concrete progress on major aspects such as diplomacy, climate and trade.”

But improved diplomatic relations and cordial transactions in non-military affairs don’t change the basic dynamic of the Taiwan crisis. Many PLA generals are probably asking: are we going to do this or not?

Global Times have repeatedly said that US actions speak louder than words. But this applies to China too. If Beijing takes no action to change the status quo of the Taiwan situation it will never be a reunification of China and Taiwan. What the US says, gaffes or not, matters little in this context, especially because we know that Washington has already decided to defend Taiwan militarily. AUKUS proves that.

The corporate “democratic” system will lose fundamental credibility if the US abandons Taiwan. America will defend its turf like a mafia family will defend its territory. The mafia in Sicily joined America to fight Mussolini on the mainland.

Washington is only going to back down now if China is credible when threatening to nuke its enemies. If China is not willing to go that far it will in the next years or decade either be 1) a very long conventional war of attrition in Taiwan, or 2) endless boring diplomatic chatter reported by each side’s propaganda outlets.

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