Strategic ambiguity is pointless after Australia says it will defend Taiwan if the US decides to militarily protect the island


‘Inconceivable’ Australia would not join U.S. to defend Taiwan – Australian defence minister

Australia has now de facto destroyed the US policy of strategic ambiguity regarding the question whether America will defend Taiwan or not, especially after 1) Biden “accidentally misspoke” about the US protecting Taiwan, and 2) it was revealed that America had soldiers in Taiwan.

To see why strategic ambiguity is de facto abandoned by AUKUS one can just look at how the situation would have been perceived if America, and not China, had been fighting secessionism:

Let’s imagine that conservative Alaska wanted to declare independence from ultra-liberal Washington, and China said publicly it would defend Alaska if conservative Russia decided to send troops in order to help this northern region. Nobody in Washington would then have believed Russia if the latter claimed it adhered to a policy of strategic ambiguity, because this ambiguity has been destroyed by proxy. Washington would have assumed that Russia let China, an ally, say openly what Russia could not say for diplomatic reasons.

Taiwan is never going to peacefully reunite with mainland China after Australia practically said openly that AUKUS will defend the island. Serbia in 1914 decided not to peacefully accept Austria-Hungary’s demands after Russia declared it would support Serbia. This started WW1.

China backing down now is as unrealistic as thinking that America would not have started a war to take back Hawaii if natives on the island declared independence. Honor is still important in Asia. PLA will lose face, lose domestic power, and lose status internationally if endlessly tolerating that Taiwan is today a de facto independent state collaborating with America, a Western empire which is the historical enemy of China since UK and US invaded China during the “century of humiliation”.

America can’t back down either if the US wants to have a fighting chance to restore global Pax Americana, to restore the corporate neoliberal world order.

Russia can’t accept a Chinese defeat in a war over Taiwan, because this defeat will probably weaken CCP in such a degree that America has a relatively good chance to restore a unipolar world dominated by Washington.

A unipolar world may reappear when Pentagon has developed enough small unmanned subs and swarms of robotic boats that can stop 10,000 small boats crossing the Taiwan Strait during a Chinese invasion. It may take a decade to create this second US autonomous navy, but China is running out of time, it seems.

If the two empires of China and the US decide to crucify peace then we cultural conservatives can look at the bright side of an idiotic and unethical Taiwan War:

The “best” outcome and “positive” side effect of a Taiwan War spinning out of control is that a global conflagration is probably going to (partly) destroy the anti-conservative Western 4IR (fourth industrial revolution).

If a Taiwan War doesn’t spread globally but America loses the war, like it has done in the Middle East, the outcome will probably weaken the power of the woke libertine system in the West. The 1984 surveillance regime in China will expand and grow stronger, but it will continue to be a non-woke and non-libertine surveillance system.

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