Dr. Robert D. Eldridge: China may attack Taiwan before US capable of defending GPS satellites in 2026

We unapologetic fanboys of doom and gloom are delighted to hear that non compos mentis Xi will pounce on Taiwan in 2023 maybe, according to bellicose Bobby Eldridge. His fabulous prediction is presented at 0:45:52 – 0:48:35 minutes in the video below. But who is this gnarly warmonger you may ask?

Dr. Robert D. Eldridge is an expert on Japan’s security and diplomacy, a senior researcher at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, and the author of The Origins of U.S. Policy in the East China Sea Islands Dispute (Routledge, 2014).

China Unscripted:

Japan Is Facing an Existential Crisis Over Taiwan

I disagree with Bobby’s domino theory, a theory disproven by the Vietnam War, but only if the US builds up supermax defense systems in Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. If the unexciting goal is to avoid WW3 then America should not interfere with the Han Chinese civil war in the Taiwan Strait but instead create beautiful and impressive powder kegs in countries that are formal allies of the US. From this perspective the so-called “better angel of my nature” supports Biden and disagrees with the author of this article in Foreign Affairs:

America Is Turning Asia Into a Powder Keg

“Asia is trending in a dangerous direction. Across the continent, advanced missile technology is proliferating among U.S. friends and rivals alike. Nuclear powers are undertaking expansive nuclear modernization efforts. Democratization is stalling and, in some cases, rolling back. And the economic influence of the United States is waning while that of authoritarian China is growing.”

“The United States is not the cause of these troubling trends, but its overly militarized approach to Asia is making them worse. By surging troops and military hardware into the region and encouraging its allies to enlarge their arsenals, Washington is heightening tensions and increasing the risk of an avoidable conflict.”

There will be no domino effect however if all countries neighboring China are porcupines, except poor Taiwan… But the Tibetans and Uighurs are not happy campers either, with no Americans willing to start a war to help them, so life’s a bitch (if you don’t live in rich Norway like I do).

Bobby is also wrong about CCP getting control over the chip industry in Taiwan. Taipei will blow up TSMC if China attacks. TSMC is maybe and perhaps not that relevant in the long run. Asia Updated:

Huawei Enters the Photonic Chip

Much uncertainty here but if you get a kick out of chaos the roaring 2020s are the trip of a lifetime.

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