China probably lacks ability to invade Taiwan in the near future


US Green Berets who’ve trained Taiwanese troops explain how they could fight China and why the US keeps their mission secret

If the native population of Hawaii had declared independence from the US, and China had sent special forces and weapons to Hawaii, then it’s very likely indeed that Washington would have immediately started a war to take back the island and expel Chinese forces. The US would not have said: we have to postpone the war until after the presidential election and after the Olympics.

In one way it’s therefore not credible when Global Times says that the stopping power of water in the Taiwan Strait isn’t a very huge obstacle today. TASS:

Taiwan Strait no obstacle to mainland China if armed conflict erupts — The Global Times

“According to the article [in Global Times], even if Taiwan’s current authorities engage all possible forces and means to defend the island, this won’t change the overall correlation of the military potentials of mainland China and Taiwan”

On the other hand we know from the “hide and bide” principle of Beijing that China is the master of patience. But since TASS refers to a bellicose article in GT it can maybe and perhaps indicate that Russia is viewing an invasion as being more likely in the near future. CCP appears to have less patience these days. Global Times:

US risks jeopardizing improving ties with China with Blinken’s Taiwan remarks

“Although China is capable of cracking down on US diplomatic offensives, a diplomatic response is not enough, because the Taiwan question is about China’s core interest and the political foundation of China-US ties, Yuan said, stressing that China would take tougher action, including military action, to warn the US of the seriousness of provoking China’s redline.”

“Jin said that the People’s Liberation Army is likely to take more direct action in the Taiwan Straits to respond to US provocations, and the US is the one that should be blamed for further damaging regional peace and stability.”

“Yuan said that “if the US keeps provoking, it means the PLA’s previous warnings through military drills and air patrols have been ignored. Then the PLA will need to deter the US and Taiwan secessionists in other ways, such as sending military aircraft across the island or even conduct live-fire drills around the island.”  

“In recent days, there were some signs that the two biggest economies of the world intended to ease their tensions in some fields, such as economy and trade. These signs included the most recent video conversation between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and the release of Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou, who was illegally detained by Canada under US pressure.”

“However, Blinken’s remarks are likely to bury the hope of the recovery of China-US ties and will even further escalate existing tensions, and the US won’t be able to get China’s cooperation in areas that it desperately needs help in, said experts.”

The stopping power of water in the Taiwan Strait is a major obstacle. It’s also natural that China is relatively deterred by the fact that America can block shipments to China if Beijing attacks Taipei.

China is incredibly unwise if assuming that America will not intervene to defend Taiwan. China must either deter Washington by clearly signaling that Beijing is ready to escalate all the way to WW3 if necessary. Or CCP must be prepared for a war of attrition that can last 20 years.

China may endure a global trade boycott if 1) the international economy has already entered stagflation, and/or 2) climate changes force empires to accept a drastic reduction of consumption in any case.


Analysis: The 1970s all over again? Stagflation debate splits Wall St

U.N. warns world set for 2.7C rise on today’s emissions pledges

If the US sends the military to attack China in Taiwan it’s not unlikely that the situation escalates until Beijing in a tit for tat decides to attack Hawaii. The next step after that can be WW3. If Beijing is crazy enough to risk a world war then one can expect an attack on Taiwan before America has developed a missile shield which can stop nuclear hypersonic missiles. The New York Times:

China’s Weapon Test Close to a ‘Sputnik Moment,’ U.S. General Says

“Gen. Mark A. Milley said the Chinese test of a hypersonic missile “has all of our attention.”” (…)

“The test was notable because hypersonic missiles can quickly maneuver and alter course, flying below low-earth orbit. They are virtually impossible for existing American defenses, designed for intercontinental ballistic missiles that follow a predictable path into space and re-enter the atmosphere, to intercept.”

Milley, the woke general, has a divided attention by the way. He and Pentagon don’t mind that American conservative soldiers are alienated by wokeness entering mainstream cultures in the West. Reuters:

U.S. issues first passport with ‘X’ gender marker

If I had been a crazy non-woke CCP leader I would have attacked Taiwan now that America is divided by the culture war. Who can take Washington seriously when America in the middle of a climate crisis is busy fighting over gender pronouns? When divisive gender issues are prioritized by Western leaders it proves that liberals in EU/US are not really that concerned about unifying people in a fight against climate change. When this snowflake generation suddenly loses all or much of the Internet at the beginning of an AUKUS Taiwan War it will probably not take long before the culture war becomes hot inside the West, forcing Washington to focus on internal matters instead of fighting in Taiwan. This unusual situation implies that conservative culture warriors in the West can have an interest in encouraging America to defend Taiwan initially. It also means that China will probably enjoy a (pyrrhic) victory in Taiwan if CCP has no inhibition when it comes to escalating a war or enduring it for a decade or two.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s