Chinese media commentators should not underestimate the difficulty of invading Taiwan, and not blindly assume America will not join the fight

Nothing like a jolly good doom, so we good-looking jingoists are buoyant about the possibility of many long exciting conflagrations if PLA decides to start a hot war in the belief that it will all be relatively quick and easy. I strongly lean toward the assumption that AUKUS will not intervene militarily, but this passivity presupposes that Washington thinks China is MAD enough to escalate all the way to hitting the red nuclear button. Brinkmanship in other words is only effective if CCP actually is ready to begin WW3. The starting point of this fantabulous doom is predictable. Nukes are probably step 3 after 1) America hits the Chinese mainland and 2) Beijing sends cool shiny hypersonic missiles to Silicon Valley.

The moment an American ship is destroyed by Chinese rockets it’s not unlikely that the US will react in a way that starts a conventional war on a scale not seen the last 75 years. If China and America somehow manage to avoid a nuclear firework we spectators might enjoy a war of attrition which can last 20 years. Are China prepared for that? It better be or the whole enterprise of pew pew and bang bang may end in an anticlimax, and that’s just no fun at all. We connoisseurs of war therefore get a little worried if CCP is telling mainlanders that the show will quickly end after the first shot is fired. This can create naive expectations that will backfire if PLA doesn’t deliver.

American hawks probably view it as a good sign when observing that Chinese propaganda has a need to sell the coming Taiwan War as almost a walk in the park, as seen in this video (06:57 – 08:24) from Difference Frames the World:

Here Is Why Taking Taiwan Over By Force Is In The Best Interests Of Chinese Nation!

On a side note (if you are concerned about boring ethics) it should be mentioned en passant that all juicy and very smelly wars are evil, including a war against Taiwan. But we primitive humans have a tendency to view some wars as “necessary evils”. For example, if the indigenous population of Hawaii declared that their island is independent, not a part of the US, while China said that Beijing’s support to indigenous freedom fighters is “rock solid”, then it’s predictable that America is willing to risk WW3 to prevent secession. If CCP has a similar attitude toward Taiwan it’s certainly distressing that my gaming computer may perhaps get disconnected from online servers or maybe destroyed by an EMP blast if WW3 starts. That’s the drawback of an intercontinental war. It has real life consequences.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s