Putin claiming Taiwan and China can reunite without force is like saying that Russia could have peacefully reunited with Crimea

TASS:

Putin says China has no need to use weapons to solve its problems

“As the Russian leader stressed, he saw no threat that China would resort to the use of force to settle the situation with Taiwan.”

““In one of his latest speeches, and I was present at this international event, [Chinese] President Xi Jinping pointed out that China was not planning to use its armed forces for resolving any problems whatsoever. This is approximately what he stated,” Putin said.”

Taiwan has been de facto independent the last 70 years, since 1949. It’s therefore wishful thinking to believe that a corporatist democracy like Taiwan will peacefully reunite with the communist mainland.

Maybe Beijing’s goal is to just formally maintain the principle of “one country, two systems”. Global Times:

Crush the will of Tsai authorities and break cross-Straits stalemate: Global Times editorial

“”One country, two systems” will become the door to peacefully resolve the Taiwan question. The DPP authorities cannot deny this most realistic and feasible arrangement. As the situation intensifies, the general public in Taiwan will finally accept it. It will become the approach of reunification that gains most support from Chinese society.”

If I had been the leader of Taiwan I would have paid lip service to the principle of “one country, two systems” while building up my high-tech asymmetric porcupine defense on the island, with a little (secret) help of my friends in America and Australia. Taiwan has time on its side if Beijing doesn’t attack in the 2020s. The island will only lose its de facto independence if America decides not to be the world leader in weaponized AI. Perhaps the US military and/or companies like Alphabet refuse to embrace the insane concept of “slaughterbots”. Maybe Pentagon decides to support a MAD non-AI defense system? I doubt it. Anyway, the sleeping giant of America has just awakened, so you can bet we’ll see major (secret) developments in the field of US killer bots the next decade.

Beijing claims that the current leaders in Taiwan are secessionists. CCP will therefore have to react to this alleged secession in the same way that Democrats and Republicans would have done if Hawaii declared independence from the US. Global Times:

Taiwan secessionists stage ‘doomsday madness’ in seeking foreign support

“Taiwan secessionist authorities continue to seek support, including military ones, from the US to disrupt the national reunification of China, and this proves that the message of the Chinese mainland of a peaceful solution toward Taiwan compatriots and the serious warning to authorities on the island have been ignored, with experts from both sides of the Taiwan Straits saying this is “the last madness” of the secessionists before their doomsday, and the hope of a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question is declining sharply.” (…)

“Shao Zong-hai, a former Taiwan politician and member of the KMT, and a scholar on cross-Straits relations, told the Global Times on Tuesday that all of these acts prove that the DPP authority has no sincerity and intention to seek a peaceful solution with the mainland over the Taiwan question, and insists on secessionism. So the mainland has to consider how to safeguard the national sovereignty of China and resolve the Taiwan question once and for all by force.” (…)

“The anonymous expert said that “The mainland’s warning against secessionism is not just talking the talk, and whether the solution will be peaceful or not, the secessionists will be judged, condemned and punished. This is not just a warning, but also a serious promise from the Communist Party of China (CPC) to the Chinese nation.”” (…)

“Analysts said this proves that the Chinese public is eager to resolve the Taiwan question and punish secessionism, as the secessionist authorities on the island and foreign forces, especially the US, have seriously offended and provoked the Chinese public in the mainland. The anger has been raised to the highest level and continues to grow. This will make the future of the Taiwan Straits situation unlikely remain peaceful.”

Beijing will lose all credibility if doing nothing after defining the conflict over Taiwan as being a question of secession. In other words, there will be war if Taipei doesn’t return to “one country, two systems”.

National Review:

If China attacks Taiwan, &c.

“Astute China-watchers say the following: Xi Jinping sees the seizure of Taiwan as his “legacy project.” He wants to make China “whole.” He has brought Hong Kong to heel; the next item on the agenda is Taiwan. Nationalism is roaring in China, even more than usual. The seizure of Taiwan would be popular among the Chinese — even more than Putin’s seizure of Crimea among the Russians.”

“The question of “strategic ambiguity” makes me think about NATO. That alliance is not supposed to include such ambiguity. Article 5 is clear: An attack on one is an attack on all. This is the point of a collective-security arrangement. A lack of ambiguity is key to deterrence: “If you attack one of us, you have attacked all of us. Are you ready for that?”” (…)

“In 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threw Article 5 into ambiguity. Martha MacCullum of Fox News asked him, “If Montenegro is attacked, should young men and women from the United States fight to defend Montenegro?””

“By the way, journalists always ask about small countries such as Montenegro. They never ask about other members of the alliance: France, say, or Britain, or Italy, or Germany. Just small countries such as Montenegro and Estonia.”

“Pompeo dodged the question. MacCallum asked again. Pompeo said, “I’m not going to get into hypotheticals.””

“But NATO is not supposed to be hypothetical. Is it?”

“My guess is, the United States and other countries would not lift a finger if China grabbed Taiwan. We would grumble for a few days and then clink glasses with China, someday, somehow.”

But maybe naive politicians in Washington believe that a quick intervention will not trigger a global war? Politicians and generals made a similar mistake in August, 1914.

The Washington Post:

Opinion: Congress must untie Biden’s hands on Taiwan

“Without the ability for the president to react immediately, any delay would prevent the United States from responding, at a lower level of conflict, to repel an invasion and de-escalate the situation.” (…)

” … That could be the difference between limited conflict and global war.”

We cultural conservatives in Warmongers United are anti-4IR (fourth industrial revolution), so we’ll dance and sing if America intervenes quickly in the belief that such reckless action will somehow prevent an escalation, prevent that hypersonic missiles hit 1) woke and libertine Silicon Valley, 2) totalitarian Big Tech in Shenzhen, and 3) TSMC in Taiwan. The US going to war in order to deescalate a war over Taiwan will only make it more likely that 4IR is (partly) destroyed. So, we warmongers are very: You go, America!

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