Twenty years of attrition warfare in Taiwan is nothing compared to China’s (imperial) history of over 4000 years

It’s possible that CCP simply uses Taiwan as a bargaining chip during negotiations with the US or maybe Beijing just wants to pressure Taipei to abandon all formal talk about independence, but if one listens to what Global Times is saying it’s clear as day that an invasion is coming, later or sooner:

US’ revelation of troops in Taiwan will only hasten cross-Straits war: Global Times editorial

“Second, we must resolutely define the deployment of US troops in Taiwan as an “invasion.” The mainland has the right to carry out military strikes against them at any time. We will not make any promises over their safety. Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, those US military personnel will be the first to be eliminated. Through such a declaration, we must make Washington understand that it is playing a dangerous game that is destined to draw fire onto itself and it is risking the lives of young US soldiers.” (…)

“The struggle across the Taiwan Straits is about a process, but is more about a result. The result is: The island will finally return to the embrace of the motherland. Both the US and Democratic Progressive Party authorities have had an increasing sense of urgency. This is determined jointly by the mainland’s strength and will.”

“China is a nuclear power. US Strategic Command chief Charles Richard described our nuclear deterrence capabilities as “breathtaking.” The absolute military advantage that the mainland has formed over Taiwan is sufficient to enable the former to take over the latter in one strike. If the US military participates in the war, it will be severely hit by the People’s Liberation Army and suffer unbearable losses. As China’s economic scale continues to approach that of the US, the so-called US sanctions have been unable to deter China. Resolving the Taiwan question through military means has become an increasingly realistic option.”

“As long as the mainland can realize its sustainable development and national unity in the game with the US and Taiwan island, it will prove the two’s miscalculations. As the game cannot change the fundamental process of the mainland’s rise, it will only make it easier and less costly for the mainland to realize reunification by force, thus strengthening the mainland’s resolve. The whole process will make the US and Taiwan island desperate.” (…)

” … But once the PLA launches a general offensive against the authorities on the other side of the Taiwan Straits, or even it issues an ultimatum before launching the attack, the world will see how weak and coward the Taiwan secessionists are.”

China’s strategists are very smart and think at least hundred years ahead. They know what AUKUS is capable of doing if Washington decides to defend Taiwan. But CCP is not deterred by the real possibility that America may perhaps (accidentally) escalate all the way up to WW3. PLA has taken all war scenarios into consideration without backing down at all. The only “caveat” maybe is GT writing above that “As long as the mainland can realize its sustainable development and national unity in the game with the US and Taiwan island, it will prove the two’s miscalculations.”

America is now awake however, so it will build AI weapons to counter China. And smuggle it all into Taiwan, cf Charlie Wilson’s War. Silicon Valley has time on its side if there is global “business as usual”. It’s therefore less credible when GT says: “As the game cannot change the fundamental process of the mainland’s rise, it will only make it easier and less costly for the mainland to realize reunification by force, thus strengthening the mainland’s resolve.” But maybe a combination of hubris and procrastination will tempt CCP to postpone the war until the late 2020s?

CCP points out the difference between China today and imperial China, but “rightwing” nationalism in China has grown stronger, as Kevin Rudd mentions here:

Xi Jinping’s Evergrande Challenge | Kevin Rudd on Chinese and Global Economy

Maybe Xi really is the new “red emperor” of China, as Tony Abbott describes him:

China’s Wrong Turn | Tony Abbott’s Full Speech in Taiwan

If we are seeing a renaissance of the Chinese empire and the Russian empire then Abbott’s speech in Taiwan appears a bit quaint, as if taken out of an old movie from the liberal 1990s. Even the West is hybrid authoritarian today.

If Xi wants to be remembered by history as one of the great men who shaped the future of China one can almost take it for granted that we sooner or later will observe the fall of Taiwan.

Xi will probably invade Taiwan and forget about the “global village” when CCP reaches a point where it fully realizes that the neoliberal system will always exclude China if Beijing doesn’t bow to Washington and City of London. If CCP has already reached this point an invasion may perhaps happen after 2022 and before 2024.

If liberal woke corporatists don’t want to risk WW3, then stay out of the Taiwan Strait. We cultural conservatives however are “better dead than red”, but we don’t have power now in the dystopian woke and libertine West.

If some liberal optimists out there still assume that my sanguine “pessimism” regarding WW3 is exaggerated scaremongering it’s wise to take into consideration the chaotic nature of the situation. CNN:

US submarine hits underwater object in South China Sea

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