4 of 5 main global chip fabs can get destroyed in Taiwan War

Four of five main chip (wafer) foundries are located in or near China, as seen in the articles linked below.

IC Insights:

Five Semiconductor Companies Hold 53% of Global Wafer Capacity

Tom’s Hardware:

Report: Semiconductor Foundry Revenue Reaches New Historical High

When red teaming a Taiwan War it’s seems rational for CCP to start the attack by sending hypersonic missiles toward TSMC and UMC in Taiwan, because Western states will then be less motivated to defend the island. But if American forces in South Korea attack the Chinese military it’s far from unthinkable that the fabs of Samsung and SK hynix will be hit too.

CCP will probably not sacrifice its global trade and international supply chains in any war if it sees that China has a good chance of winning Cold War 2 peacefully. For example, if the US shares cutting-edge chip design and technologies with China it’s likely that there will be no Taiwan War. But that’s not a good strategy from a US perspective, since China will probably win Cold War 2 if having access to the best semiconductors (because chips are the brains of weaponized drones and killer robots).

If China can’t have the latest cutting-edge chips it’s rational from the viewpoint of CCP to create a situation where the US is also denied access to semiconductors.

A war in Taiwan may perhaps start before TSMC has finished building its new chip fab in Arizona, 2024.


TSMC confirms talks to build Japan chip plant

“Liu confirmed for the first time that the $12 billion factory that TSMC is building in Arizona will start mass production in the first quarter of 2024, and said the first batch of engineers hired in the U.S. to staff the facility arrived in Taiwan during late April for training.”

Critics of my speculative war scenario will argue that China is too rich and wealthy to sacrifice decades of successful development just to take back Taiwan. From a Western hedonistic perspective I agree with these critics. But the strategists in China think at least hundred years ahead when making plans. It’s therefore possible that China will sacrifice 4IR (fourth industrial revolution) now in order to prevent becoming forever subordinate to America’s Pax AI. This possibility is very real if it’s true that China is a power in decline. If Peter Zeihan is correctly analyzing the predicament of China, in the linked video below, then it’s probably bad news for peace.


China is Done | Peter Zeihan predicts China’s Energy Crisis (with sound)

For the first time I now have a gut feeling that war is approaching relatively fast, after seeing that CCP is not deterred by AUKUS. Global Times:

Record number of PLA warplanes flying over Taiwan Straits as form of National Day ‘military parade’: Global Times editorial

“Just one day after the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent 38 war planes for exercises near the island of Taiwan on Friday, which also marks National Day, the PLA dispatched 39 aircraft over the island’s self-proclaimed southwest air defense identification zone. This has consecutively broken the previous record of the scale of exercises in this area. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in the island were shocked once again, while public opinion in the US and the West continue to speculate on the move.” (…)

“The DPP authorities have violated the 1992 consensus and are recklessly in pursuit of secessionism. They are willing to act as an anti-China chess piece in conjunction with the US, and thus has pushed the Straits situation to the brink. They have constantly hyped up claims that they are at the forefront of the so-called democratic world to resist “authoritarian rule.” They have thus turned themselves into a block that the Chinese mainland must get rid of strategically and an evil force the mainland must crush.”

“The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it did in Beijing in 1949. There is no doubt about the future of the situation across the Taiwan Straits. The initiative of when and how to solve the Taiwan question is firmly in the hands of the Chinese mainland.”

Chinese media is full of rhetoric, but it comes a point when it’s very naive to think that it’s just rhetoric when official media declares that China is preparing for war. If I had lived in Taiwan I would now have based all my plans on the assumption that a war is coming, maybe next month or perhaps in 2025. The date is very uncertain, but you can see the writing on the wall.

CCP today is (probably) not so naive as to think that a display of military force will encourage Taiwan to voluntarily join the mainland. After CCP attacked Hong Kong and after AUKUS it’s zero chance that Taiwan is freely returning. CCP can fly warplanes around Taiwan for decades but it will not change anything. CCP knows that. Therefore it’s reasonable to conclude that CCP really intends to invade Taiwan.

If or when a war occurs expect that the military in China will not be stopped by America or Japan. If the West intervenes, a century of humiliation will explode.

Is the West willing to risk that 4IR (partly) burns down if or when a war over Taiwan escalates beyond control? I doubt that, but if I’m wrong then China and Russia have less to lose than the West.

Semiconductors are the backbone of the libertine woke authoritarian panopticon in the West. Cultural conservatives and humanity in general should therefore fear a Taiwan War just as much as Jews in 1939 feared the brutality of a war against Nazi Germany.

I’m simply a gamer however, a hypocrite par excellence, some may argue. Because it’s not in my selfish hedonistic interest if a war stops the supply of new GPUs to Norway. I hope Cold War 2 lasts until 2040 at least, since it has more entertainment value than woke Elder Scrolls Online or a politicized Hollywood movie.

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