Foreign Affairs: The End of China’s Rise

“That may seem like good news for Washington: the chances of China effortlessly sprinting past the United States are low. But it’s not entirely reassuring. As China’s problems take hold, the future will look menacing for Beijing. The specter of stagnation will haunt CCP officials. Xi Jinping will wonder whether he can deliver on his grandiose pledges. And that’s when the world should get really worried.”

“Revisionist powers tend to become most dangerous when the gap between their ambitions and their capabilities starts to look unmanageable. When a dissatisfied power’s strategic window begins to close, even a low-probability lunge for victory may seem better than a humiliating descent. When authoritarian leaders worry that geopolitical decline will destroy their political legitimacy, desperation often follows. For example, Germany waged World War I to prevent its hegemonic aspirations from being crushed by a British-Russian-French entente; Japan started World War II in Asia to prevent the United States from choking off its empire.”

“China today checks many worrying boxes. Slowing growth? Check. Strategically encircled? Check. Brutal authoritarian regime with few sources of organic legitimacy? Check. Historical axe to grind and revanchist ambitions? Check and check. In fact, China is already engaging in the practices—the relentless military buildup, the search for spheres of influence in Asia and beyond, the effort to control critical technologies and resources—to be expected from a country in its position. If there is a formula for aggression by a peaking power, China exhibits the key elements.”

“Many observers believe China is throwing its weight around today because it is so confident in its continued ascent. Xi certainly appears to think that COVID-19 and political instability in the United States have created new possibilities to advance. But the more likely—and much scarier—possibility is that China’s leaders are determined to move fast because they are running out of time. What happens when a country that wants to reorder the world concludes it might not be able to do so peacefully? Both history and China’s current behavior suggest the answer is: Nothing good.”

For another view of China listen to what Jim Rogers says about the situation in this talk at Wealthion:

Jim Rogers: The ‘Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime’ Is Nearing Fast | Debt, Inflation & Crisis (PT1)

When educated people have totally opposite views about China’s future it confirms that we live in a very complex and chaotic world. In this situation it’s wise to aim for domestic cultural stability. The West is not doing that. China on the other hand seeks national unity. Global Times:

Korean War film breaks records, has implications for today’s China-US competition

I despise all propaganda, and equally despise all surveillance, but in Cold War 2 it’s natural that we’ll see a lot of it. The interesting and fascinating difference now is that Western elites think divisive libertine and woke propaganda is most effective. Fun to see how that plays out the next decade.

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