A road map to peace between US and China (until AI robots from America dominate the world after 2040)

Cold War 2 is almost exclusively about who wins the AI robot arms race. This means that China and the US can relax a bit when it comes to 1) economic competition, and 2) the conflict over Taiwan. Because 1) & 2) are basically insignificant compared to the game-changing power of AI bots and the biotech of 4IR (fourth industrial revolution). Winning the new Cold War doesn’t depend on winning 1) and 2). Partly because the governments of great powers will heavily finance contributions to the production of cutting-edge semiconductors when they start creating (very secret) AI Manhattan Projects.

Preventing that the conflict over Taiwan spreads regionally and globally is possible if the US puts a lot of military hardware in allied countries near China while not interfering in the civil war between Han Chinese on the mainland and Han Chinese in Taiwan.

China can to a large degree be allowed to grow economically because the creation of weaponized AI robots doesn’t depend on winning the global economic competition. This presupposes of course that America doesn’t lag too far behind China the next two decades.

In theory it should therefore be possible to secure global peace the next twenty years. In practice however it’s not improbable that incompetent, insecure, immature, unwise, greedy and power-hungry leaders in the four empires (EU, US, China and Russia) get pulled into an uncontrollably escalating conflict (by smaller nations, other actors or natural disasters).

But if Washington successfully plays a game of “hide and bide” until 2040 it’s a good chance that United Coasts of America (UCA) will have developed multi-domain narrow AI swarms of insect drones that can decapitate the leaders in Kremlin and CCP at the same time when superior AI hacks the online infrastructure of China and Russia.

Neoliberals and neocons in 2040 (or 2050) will not allow a defeated Russia/China to rebuild like Germany/Japan after WW2, because the West has seen that this rebuild strategy didn’t prevent authoritarian regimes from rising again in the East after the first Cold War.

Pure war is not possible because human beings are driven by so many (contradicting) interests and desires, in addition to occasional inertia, lack of energy and procrastination, plus a tendency to ignore uncomfortable facts. Consequently, almost no general or dictator will start a necessary global war today if there is peace now and inevitable defeat in a future war is only predicted to happen after 2-3 decades of relative prosperity. It’s therefore (relatively) unlikely that Xi and Putin in the early 2020s will start a global war in order to destroy the budding AI Manhattan Project of UCA.

It’s true that Japan would have killed Szilard in 1932 if they had been aware that his contribution to nuclear technology made it possible for the Americans to build atomic bombs in 1945. Israel is also killing nuclear scientists in Iran. But Xi or Putin will (probably) not start a global war in early 2024 for example even though it will prevent that UCA wins Cold War 2 after 2040. They are not pure war machines executing an instrumentally rational strategy.

Personally I hope CW2 lasts until 2045 or 2050, because this intercontinental conflict is like the strategic board game Diplomacy. After I stopped red teaming bioterrorism in 2020 I’ve been “in between passions”, though the culture war has been a nice distraction since 1/6, but very happy to have found a new great research project: Cold War 2. When China recently threatened to nuke Japan, and Australia signed up for nuclear-driven submarines, then it’s obviously little else in the world that can be more exciting than a sci-fi Cold War. I hope all participants do their best to entertain us.

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