CCP & Kremlin will probably survive if 4IR and GPS destroyed in a conventional global war

Russians can survive anything, including the destruction of 4IR (fourth industrial revolution). China’s GDP per capita ranks it #79 in the world, which is lower than Iraq, Botswana and Turkmenistan for example. That is maybe and perhaps bad in a normal situation of global economic competition, but it provides relative endurance and resilience during and after a war. It means that millions of Chinese people got little or nothing to lose. They are used to a simple life of hardship. Rich America on the other hand was defeated in poor Vietnam and poor Iraq.

Young people in the West are screwed if a global war over Taiwan breaks out in the next 1-2 years, because it will (partly) destroy 4IR, thereby plunging spoiled hedonistic US/EU into a catastrophic disaster killing perhaps millions of citizens when there are (almost) no supply chains, difficult access to energy/fuel, no credit cards working and many offline bureaucratic computer systems. The New York Times (Jan 23, 2021):

America Has a GPS Problem

“Owned and operated by the U.S. government, GPS is likely the least recognized, and least appreciated, part of our critical infrastructure. Indeed, most of our critical infrastructure would cease to function without it.” (…)

” … If GPS was knocked out, he said, you’d notice. Think widespread power outages, financial markets seizing up and the transportation system grinding to a halt. Grocers would be unable to stock their shelves, and Amazon would go dark. Emergency responders wouldn’t be able to find you, and forget about using your cellphone.” (…)

“More than 10,000 incidents of GPS interference have been linked to China and Russia in the past five years. … And last summer, the United States Space Command accused Russia of testing antisatellite weaponry.”

“But it’s not just nation-states messing with GPS. Spoofing and jamming devices have gotten so inexpensive and easy to use that delivery drivers use them so their dispatchers won’t know they’re taking long lunch breaks or having trysts at Motel 6. Teenagers use them to foil their parents’ tracking apps and to cheat at Pokémon Go. More nefariously, drug cartels and human traffickers have spoofed border control drones. …” (…)

” … Nowadays, most people carry a GPS receiver everywhere they go — embedded in a mobile phone, tablet, watch or fitness tracker.”

“An emergency backup for GPS was mandated by the 2018 National Timing and Resilience Security Act. The legislation said a reliable alternate system needed to be operational within two years, but that hasn’t happened yet.” (…)

““China, Russia, Iran, South Korea and Saudi Arabia all have eLoran systems because they don’t want to be as vulnerable as we are to disruptions of signals from space,” said Dana Goward, the president of the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation, a nonprofit that advocates for the implementation of an eLoran backup for GPS.”

“Also under consideration by federal authorities are timing systems delivered via fiber optic network and satellite systems in a lower orbit than GPS, which therefore have a stronger signal, making them harder to hack. A report on the technologies was submitted to Congress last week.” (…)

““They think the critical infrastructure folks should figure out commercial services to support themselves in terms of timing and navigation,” said Mr. Goward. “I don’t know what they think first responders, ordinary citizens and small businesses are supposed to do.””

“The fear is that debate and deliberation will continue, when time is running out.”

If we assume that it will take 1-2 years before a GPS backup is ready in the West it’s possible that China attacks Taiwan before 2024.

CBS SF BayArea (13 Sep, 2021):

Experts Warn About Vulnerabilities of U.S. GPS System to Cyber Terrorists

“Weiss is an expert in precision time. He helped to build GPS and worked at the National Institute of Science and Technology or NIST.”

“But the mathematician and physicist has grown increasingly concerned about a major attack that could take out the U.S. utility.”

““It would decimate us. This would make the pandemic look like child’s play,” exclaimed the top expert.” (…)

“”We have been talking about it since 2002. We’re doing pretty good talking about it, but we’re not very good about doing anything about it,” said Pat Diamond, an expert in timing and synchronization technologies.”

“Diamond is a member of the U.S. National space-based Positioning, Navigation and Timing Advisory Board or PNT for short. Diamond is concerned about the lack of a backup system.”

“When KPIX 5 asked Diamond why we don’t yet have a backup system, he said GPS is so reliable and accurate, many believe an attack will never happen. Those people believe the experts like Diamond, Goward and Weiss are crying wolf.”

““It’s the politicians who don’t want to stick their neck out for something they don’t really understand,” noted Diamond.”

Me writing about this will maybe speed things up a tiny quantum bit in Washington. AUKUS has probably put the process at full speed. I wildly guess however that red tape etc will see to it that no GPS backup exists in the coming two years.

And it will be no online festivities anymore for Western unenlightened digital junkies if China & Russia cut the Internet to pieces. BORZZIKMAN:

Russian Secret Ship Caused Fear In The WEST

A partly ruined 4IR will destroy CCP and Kremlin if the loss of 4IR only happens in China and Russia, but if 4IR is destroyed globally it will not be possible for oppositional leaders in the East to say that life is better in the democratic West.

Rhetorical question: how many skilled manual workers do we have in the West today?

If CCP and Kremlin have provided enough conventional bomb shelters and hideaways for their security police forces, the regimes can maintain power after a global non-nuclear war, especially if they are willing to be as ruthless as Lenin and Mao.

Xi and Putin probably realize already that it’s a high probability they will lose Cold War 2 if United Coasts of America (UCA) is allowed to develop AI robots without interuption. China and Russia therefore have less to lose if they set in motion a chain reaction that destroys 4IR.

We old cultural conservatives know how good life was in the West between 1970 and 1995, before the Internet became mainstream. We’ll not miss 4IR, partly because libertine and woke 4IR in the West has nothing to offer us. Tacky ultra-liberality is just empty and uninteresting at best. Millennials and Gen Z however, who are the pawns of middle-aged geeks and geriatric nerds in Austin and Silicon Valley or Seattle, will suffer and moan if no longer having access to digital cocaine. But I will sure miss the entertainment and excitement of watching 4IR balancing on a knife’s edge. The suspense is better than a computer game. Big Tech deserves a standing ovation. And that’s why I personally can’t be really angry at Big Tech, since the culture war and Cold War 2 are now too enjoyable. Hope this fun insanity lasts as long as possible.

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