AUKUS is maybe a good thing

Have earlier said that America should not get involved in the civil war between mainland Han Chinese and island Han Chinese in Taiwan. America should instead strengthen the defense capabilities of formal allies and other countries neighboring China in order to prevent a domino effect if Beijing attacks Taipei.

After China threatened to nuke Japan it’s understandable that Australia wants a much better military in case a war over Taiwan spins out of control.

US wants to contain China of course, because Washington wants to be top dog in global politics, but self-defense measures seen in countries near China can also be interpreted as being the result of the security dilemma, now pumped up even more, giving Xi reason to strengthen China’s military, since it’s also possible to interpret AUKUS as being the continuation of the British imperial tradition which started when the East India Company was created. Uncertainty of intentions and the built up of power capabilities means that AUKUS will (unwittingly) destabilize the region, with ripple effects across the planet. But Australia naturally wants to be prepared for a worst-case scenario – the possibility of a major war spreading in East Asia if China attacks Taiwan – so with a little empathy (seeing things from the perspective of another person) I actually get why Australia decided to ditch the “dud sub” of France and go with the US, since developments in South China Sea is a potential existential threat.

If the West wants to signal a non-aggressive stand it should stop sending military ships into the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Drop this part of the ocean and significantly build up defensive forces, mainly on land, in countries that are formal allies with the US.

China depends on global trade so it’s not going to stop freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea.

Australia may not have nuclear subs ready until 2040. If no major war has occurred by then it’s a good chance that the whole international situation in the region has already been solved, basically.

New AI robot tech will probably make nuclear subs relatively obsolete in 2040. AUKUS however is also about AI and missiles. This part of the new alliance is arguably a larger threat to world peace and stability in East Asia.

I doubt that the US can handle the complexity of Cold War 2. Biden is not exactly Bismarck, and not even Otto would have been able to juggle all the elements of CW2 if not being very lucky.

America is chaos. Washington’s desire to spread libertine wokeness (internally in the West) clearly signals that the neoliberal expansionist agenda is still in place, on the back burner, and that Biden is not a true realist.

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