Robert Kaplan: China and Russia are weak states, US can beat them by waiting 10-20 years (hide and bide)

GEOPOP presents a talk with Kaplan, the author of the interesting book The Revenge of Geography:

China and Russia are Weak States | Robert Kaplan

Kaplan’s analysis presupposes that China is not seriously interested in attacking Taiwan. If Beijing is crazy determined to conquer Taiwan it’s obvious that after watching Kaplan’s video, where he reveals a strategy that serves the US, the old guys in CCP will do the opposite of what he recommends and simply ignore any US deals that postpone an attack. Because it doesn’t make sense to postpone an attack until the US and Taiwan are so strong that an invasion is not possible in 2030 or 2040.

In one or two decades it’s possible that America has developed systems which neutralize Chinese hypersonic missiles and air defenses while Taiwan has maybe swarms of 2500 drones that can attack 10,000 small boats sent from China to invade the island.

Japan attacked Pearl Harbor when its continued power in the future was threatened.

My attitude is that one can’t know whether China will attack or not. It’s all guesswork. Maybe Xi doesn’t know it yet either. In this chaotic and unpredictable situation it’s safest for America and Western Europe if they get their own houses in order, so that they are prepared if a war suddenly happens. The West however is busy catering to leftwing minority groups, so the Occidental will probably be internally messy and relatively comical the next years, which perhaps gives China the impression that a soft and decadent America will not intervene if Beijing pounces on Taipei.

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