Riveting military strategies: Taiwan

The following video is better than 99% of today’s Hollywood movies, which admittedly doesn’t say much, since American entertainment is garbage nowadays…

The Shifting Military Balance across the Taiwan Strait | Lyle J. Goldstein, Oriana Skylar Mastro

The talk is great because it confirms my bias in favor of volatile political realism. International politics is too messy, too chaotic and too driven by “smart fools” to predict what will happen in six months or two years. I therefore instinctively agree with Lyle and Oriana while the rationalist in me recognizes that admiral Blair has some very good arguments too, some of which I have used myself when claiming earlier that China will (indefinitely) postpone an attack on Taiwan. This uncertainty is the core of volatile political realism, a reason why I support moderation and stability (instead of today’s reckless ideological experiments in the West).

Being a nationalist I will in principle always claim that when the same ethnic group is engaged in a potential violent border conflict, then other states should not get involved, unless it’s a real genocide, but foreign powers can of course build up militaries in all neighboring countries to prevent that the conflict spreads to other states.

However, I also think original humanity can survive a nuclear war but not survive if we continue to go down the path to a Brave New World of AI cyborgs, so if hawks in America want to start a new war, then I will look at the bright side: there will be no Silicon Valley and no Shenzhen after WW3.

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