Geopolitics partly replaced by tech-politics in Ukraine and Taiwan

If an attacker has superior AI robots, the stopping power of water (oceans, channels and straits) will not matter much because narrow multi-domain AI recon and killer bots can beat all coastal defense systems.

500 kilometers of land between a hostile state and your own capital is not much if the enemy got dispersed swarms of tiny insect drones that can quickly and stealthily kill all top leaders in the capital.

Have earlier described how automated bots can traverse land and oceans, using a hypotethical attack on America to illustrate it:

Superior AI drones with high-speed agility can destroy tanks and other conventional forces. Aljazeera (Oct 11, 2020):

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is ushering in a new age of warfare

Taiwan is of strategic importance partly because the island is one of the two main producers of cutting-edge semiconductors, aka chips/CPUs, which are the hardware needed to create superior AI. But it’s extremely difficult for China to occupy Taiwan because of the stopping power of water, the mountainous terrain on the island and its compact population of ca 24 million people. Some claim that it’s already impossible for China to occupy Taiwan. However, if China doesn’t try to invade Taiwan now it’s only a matter of time before the US will be able to smuggle in twenty standard ship containers, each containing 50 000 killer drones with superior AI based on the best chips in the world. China can never beat that when having inferior AI, especially if China lacks the creative talent required to design chips beyond Moore’s law: More than Moore (03/29/2021).

Russia struggles even more than China, since the country doesn’t have a notable semiconductor industry. A search on Google provides little information but as far as I know today Russia appears to only be able to create 65 nm chips, which is nothing compared to China’s 14 nm semiconductors and Taiwan’s 3 or 5 nm chips.

Netherland creates machines needed to produce cutting-edge semiconductors. Russia appears to be interested in acquiring the know-how needed to create chips:

Netherlands Orders Expulsion Of Two Alleged Russian Spies Who Targeted Tech Sector

Russia needs AI to stop automated drones which Ukraine has already started to operate today:

Ukraine turns to Turkey as Russia threatens full-scale war

The conflict in Ukraine (April 2021) may deescalate after Biden called Putin to arrange a summit meeting and the US cancelled warships scheduled to enter the Black Sea. The geopolitical problem remains however, because Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer zone. Ukraine is only ca 500 km from Moscow. NATO in Estonia is only about 150 km from St. Petersburg. Additionally, the never-ending conflict between NATO’s hawkish “liberals” and authoritarian regimes will always be a potential threat to a non-democratic Russia:

When it now appears like NATO, at the moment of writing, has decided not to provoke Russia, indicated by the fact that US warships to the Black Sea were cancelled, the strategy of Washington might be to just stand by on high alert but do nothing unless Russia attacks first. In one way that is a smart strategy, because Russia will be branded as a clear aggressor if attacking Ukraine first without any prior Western provocation. NATO has the resources to remain on high alert for a long time while it’s costly for Russia to keep troops mobilized when the country is being sanctioned by the West.

NATO has time on its side. America can just follow the old playbook from the first Cold War: contain and sanction Russia in an expensive arms race it can’t afford.

When America is “AI-ready” in 2025, as described in the NSCAI report, it will probably be impossible for Russia to ever occupy or control Ukraine. NATO forces will then (secretly) operate 500 km from Moscow, and Russia can do nothing about it.

Tech-politically it appears like it’s a necessary evil for Moscow to occupy Ukraine in the near future and secure Russia’s traditional buffer zone before it’s too late.

Perhaps the only way to “solve” or indefinitely postpone the conflict in Taiwan and Ukraine is to always let China and Russia have access to the latest semiconductors. This will to a large degree restore the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. It will also make it possible to create advanced AI cyborgs more quickly when all three empires plus EU work peacefully on turning humanity into cyborgs, an absurd project but I have kind of stopped opposing it because of the paradigm shift on

The main problem remains: how can any empire verify that no other great power has secretly achieved a significant advantage in AI development? Such verification is impossible, unless all three empires have godlike surveillance powers covering all places on Earth. All in all it’s therefore reasonable to conclude that relying on AI is like playing Russian roulette. But our dear leaders want to play, and common people don’t stop it, so…

… does it mean I think Putin will risk an intercontinental war by attacking Ukraine? If he’s like Khrushchev in Hungary 1956 he will risk it all to secure Russia. If he’s corrupt and decadent, as the West claims, nothing will happen. My gut feeling is that it’s a 60% chance that peace will prevail, though a minor attack in the most eastern part of Ukraine is more likely to occur. But who knows? We live on Earth, the wrongest of planets. Anything can happen here.

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